Sonoma County

Covid-19 Key Indicators

The truth is like a lizard; it leaves its tail in your hand and runs away; it knows that it will shortly grow a new one. – Ivan Turgenev

I acquire coronavirus data daily for certain California county websites, like Sonoma County, that display it [1]. Then I calculate some key indicators for the virus that might be useful to understand and control it. You can find out more about them at Coronavirus Key Indicators Description. According to official California statistics, the population of Sonoma County is 509,142. [1] I use my PHP program CoronavirusScrape.php.

Marin County, adjacent to Sonoma County, has similar data available, and its results are shown at Marin County Coronavirus Key Indicators.

• 

• 

County	doubling.rate	start.day	end.day	Date	mean R	Infections per day
Sonoma	55.81	8	364	2021-03-09	0.86	14.61

Data may be newer than comment below, as I do not comment every day.

Current Comment and KPIs

3/10/21- Mean R is now at 0.86. Infections per day are over 14, down for the first time in a while. Doubling rate is over 55 days.

I will occasionally refer to a mobility graph, which uses the Google Mobility Report data to show where the county stands on social isolation and social distancing practices. Mobility data appears to be one of the best ways to predict the trend of the virus. Mobility information is at Coronavirus Mobility Indicators.

COMMENT HISTORY

3/5/21- Mean R is now at 0.72. Infections per day are over 14, down for the first time in a while. Doubling rate is over 55 days.

3/5/21- Mean R is now at 0.85. Infections per day are over 15. Doubling rate is over 54 days.

3/3/21- Mean R is now at 0.82. Infections per day are over 15. Doubling rate is over 53 days.

3/1/21- Mean R is now at 0.93. Infections per day are over 15. Doubling rate is over 53 days.

2/28/21- Mean R is now at 1.04. Infections per day are over 15. Doubling rate is over 52 days. Still not enough practicing distancing and isolation.

2/27/21- Mean R is now at 1.07. Infections per day are over 16. Doubling rate is over 52 days. Still not enough practicing distancing and isolation.

2/25/21- Mean R is now at 1.13. Infections per day are over 16. Doubling rate is over 51 days. People are not restraining the outbreak by practicing distancing and isolation.

2/24/21- Mean R is now at 1.15. Infections per day are over 16. Doubling rate is over 51 days.

2/22/21- Mean R is now at 0.99. Infections per day are over 16. Doubling rate is over 51 days.

2/21/21- Mean R is now back up to 1.12. Infections per day are over 16. Doubling rate is over 50 days.

2/20/21- Mean R is now down to 0-.95 again after a day above 1. Infections per day are over 16. Doubling rate is over 50 days.

2/18/21- Mean R is now back up, to 1.0 after a long stretch below 1. Infections per day are over 17. Doubling rate is over 49 days.

2/14/21- Mean R is now 0.58, under 1. Infections per day are over 17. Doubling rate is over 49 days. People are obviously taking care.

2/9/21- Mean R is now 0.85, under 1. Infections per day are over 17. Doubling rate is over 48 days.

2/6/21- Mean R is now 0.73, way under 1. Infections per day are over 17. Doubling rate is over 47 days.

2/4/21- Mean R is now 0.62, way under 1. Infections per day are over 17. Doubling rate is over 47 days.

2/1/21- Mean R is now 0.96, still under 1. Infections per day are over 17. Doubling rate is over 47 days. Keeping R down will reduce the epidemic.

1/30/21- Mean R is now 0.94, still under 1. Infections per day are over 17. Doubling rate is over 47days. Recoveries to infections are 301% and there will be weekend reporting of recoveries. Keeping R down will reduce the epidemic.

1/25/21- Mean R is now 0.68, as low as it’s been for a while. Infections per day are over 16. Doubling rate is over 46 days. Recoveries to infections are 350% after the weekend reporting of recoveries. Keeping R down will reduce the epidemic.

1/24/21- Mean R is now 0.73. Infections per day are over 16. Doubling rate is over 46 days. Recoveries to infections are 256%. Keeping R down will reduce the epidemic.

1/22/21- Mean R is now 0.74. Infections per day are over 16. Doubling rate is over 46 days. Recoveries to infections are 267%. Keeping R down will reduce the epidemic.

1/19/21- Mean R is now 1.01. Infections per day are over 16. Doubling rate is over 46 days. Recoveries to infections are 302%.

1/15/21- Mean R has gone back up to 1.11. Infections per day are over 15. Doubling rate is over 46 days. Recoveries to infections are 227%. Updates over the weekend.

1/12/21- Mean R has dropped to 0.89. Infections per day are over 14.7. Doubling rate is over 46 days. Recoveries to infections are 274%.

1/11/21- Mean R is still high up to 1.28. Infections per day are over 14.6. Doubling rate is over 46 days. Recoveries to infections are 282%.

1/8/21- Mean R is way up to 1.62. Infections per day are over 14. Doubling rate is over 45.9 days. Recoveries to infections are 208%. Rapid increase in cases.

1/5/21- Mean R is way up to 1.26. Infections per day are over 13.4. Doubling rate is over 45.9 days. Recoveries to infections are 233%. Holidays are over, and folks are back to breaking out.

12/31/20 – Mean R is down to 0.8. Infections per day are over 12.5. Doubling rate is over 45.7 days. Recoveries to infections are 235%. People are being careful and the curve is bending a bit.

12/30/20 – Mean R is down to 0.86. Infections per day are over 12.4. Doubling rate is over 45.7 days. Recoveries to infections are 240%. People are staying home for the holidays.

12/26/20 – Mean R is down to 0.81. Infections per day are over 11.7. Doubling rate is over 45.6 days. Recoveries to infections are 230%. People are staying home for the holidays.

12/24/20 – Mean R is down to 0.87. Infections per day are over 11.3. Doubling rate is over 45.5 days. Recoveries to infections are 251%. People may be staying home to drop the R for the holidays.

12/23/20 – Mean R is down to 1.16. Infections per day are over 11.2. Doubling rate is over 45.5 days. Recoveries to infections are 264%. The plague continues.

12/21/20 – Mean R is at 1.32. Infections per day are over 10.9. Doubling rate is over 45.4 days. Recoveries to infections are 295%. The plague continues.

12/16/20 – Mean R is at 1.47. Infections per day are over 10.3. Doubling rate is over 45.2 days. Recoveries to infections are 271%. The plague is returning big time.

12/16/20 – Mean R is at 1.05. Infections per day are over 10.1. Doubling rate is over 45.1 days. Recoveries to infections are 317%.

12/13/20 – Mean R is at 1.1. Infections per day are over 10. Doubling rate is over 44.9 days. Recoveries to infections are 355%.

12/12/20 – Mean R is at 1.24. Infections per day are over 9.9. Doubling rate is over 44.7 days. Recoveries to infections are 314%.

12/9/20 – Mean R is at 0.99. Infections per day are over 9.7. Doubling rate is over 44 days. Recoveries to infections are 375%.

12/5/20 – Mean R is at 1.29. Infections per day are over 9.6. Doubling rate is over 43 days. Recoveries to infections are 338%.

12/4/20 – Mean R is up to 1.37. Infections per day are over 9.5 Doubling rate is over 43 days. Recoveries to infections are 364%.

11/26/20 – Mean R is up to 1.35. Infections per day are below 9.5 Doubling rate is over 43 days. Recoveries to infections are 402%.

11/26/20 – Mean R is back up to 1.31. Infections per day are below 9.6. Doubling rate is overt 42 days. Recoveries to infections are 466%.

11/23/20 – Mean R is 1.02. Infections per day are below 9.6. Doubling rate is almost 42 days. Recoveries to infections are 527%.

11/21/20 – Mean R is down to 0.97. Infections per day are below 9.7. Doubling rate is over 41 days. Recoveries to infections are 448%, no updates till Sunday.

11/20/20 – Mean R is back up to 1.01. Infections per day are below 9.7. Doubling rate is over 41 days. Recoveries to infections are 457%, no updates till Sunday.

11/19/20 – Mean R is back under 1 at 0.86. Infections per day are below 9.7. Doubling rate is over 40.9 days. Recoveries to infections are 494%, no updates till Sunday.

11/16/20 – Mean R is still over 1 at 1.03. Infections per day are below 9.8. Doubling rate is over 40.4days. Recoveries to infections are 526%, no updates till Sunday.

11/13/20 – Mean R is still over 1 at 1.07. Infections per day are below 9.9. Doubling rate is over 39 days. Recoveries to infections are428%, with updates expected Sunday.

11/9/20 – Mean R is well up at 1.2. Infections per day are below 10.1. Doubling rate is over 38.8 days. Recoveries to infections are 519%, with Sunday updates complete.

11/6/20 – Mean R is well up at 1.14. Infections per day are below 10.1. Doubling rate is over 38.4 days. Recoveries to infections are 453%, with updates to recoveries expected Sunday.

11/2/20 – Mean R is down to 0.85 Infections per day are below 10.3. Doubling rate is over 37.5 days. Recoveries to infections are 543%.

11/1/20 – Mean R is down to 0.91 Infections per day are below 10.5. Doubling rate is over 37 days. Recoveries to infections are 437%, on Sunday we will have more reporting of recoveries.

10/31/20 – Mean R is 1.05, still over 1. Infections per day are below 10.5. Doubling rate is over 36.8 days. Recoveries to infections are 447%, on Sunday we will have more reporting of recoveries.

10/29/20 – Mean R is 1.12, back well over 1. Infections per day are below 10.7. Doubling rate is over 36 days. Recoveries to infections are 467% with continued decline till next Sunday reporting of recoveries.

10/27/20 – Mean R is 1.03, back over 1. Infections per day are below 10.7. Doubling rate is almost 36 days. Recoveries to infections are 519% following Sunday reporting of recoveries.

10/26/20 – Mean R is 0.98. Infections per day are below 10.8. Doubling rate is 35.7 days. Recoveries to infections are 553% after Sunday reporting of recoveries.

10/24/20 – Mean R is 1.0. Infections per day are below 11. Doubling rate is 35.3 days. Recoveries to infections are 456%; it will not change till Sunday.

10/23/20 – Mean R is 0.93. Infections per day are below 11. Doubling rate is over 35 days, continuing up. Recoveries to infections are 474%; which will not change till Sunday.

10/22/20 – Mean R is 1.3. Infections per day are below 11.1. Doubling rate is over 34.8 days, continuing up. Recoveries to infections are 482%; which will not change till Sunday.

10/21/20 – Mean R is exactly 1.0. Infections per day are 11.1. Doubling rate is over 34.6 days, good. Recoveries to infections are 501%; these went up Sunday.

10/20/20 – Mean R is 0.9, well under 1, but up from a day or so ago. Infections per day are 11.2. Doubling rate is over 34 days, good. Recoveries to infections are 528%; these went up Sunday.

10/17/20 – Mean R is 0.8, well under 1 yesterday. Infections per day are under 11.5. Doubling rate is over 33 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 406%; these will drop till Sunday reporting.

10/14/20 – Mean R is 0.98, back down under 1 yesterday. Infections per day are under 11.7, continuing to go down. Doubling rate is over 33 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 448%; these will drop till Sunday reporting.

10/11/20 – Mean R is 1.14, up on weekend. Infections per day are under 12, continuing to go down. Doubling rate is over 32.4 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 352%; Sunday reporting is when we will expect a change.

10/9/20 – Mean R is 1.06. Infections per day are under 12, continuing to go down. Doubling rate is over 32 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 395%; Sunday reporting is when we will expect a change.

10/7/20 – Mean R is 1.2; people are going about their business, with a bad effect. Infections per day are under 12.2, continuing to go down. Doubling rate is over 31.6 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 425%; Sunday reporting is when we will expect a change.

10/5/20 – Mean R is 1.17 as air clears in county. Infections per day are under 12.4, continuing to go down. Doubling rate is over 31.2 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 481%; Sunday reporting caused increase.

10/3/20 – Mean R is 1.26 as wildfires wind down and areas are removed from evacuation list. Infections per day are under 12.6, a decrease in the average since the pause started. Doubling rate is over 30.7 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 417%; they won’t go up till after the Sunday report.

10/2/20 – Mean R is 1.2 as wildfires wind down and areas are removed from evacuation list. Infections per day are under 12.7, a decrease in the average since the pause started. Doubling rate is over 30.5 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 442%; they won’t go up till after the Sunday report.

9/30/20 – Mean R is 1.09 as wildfires wind down and areas are removed from evacuation list. Evacuations due to wildfire are what is on folks’ minds. Infections per day are under 12.9, a decrease in the average since the pause started. Doubling rate is over 30 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 491%; they won’t go up till after the Sunday report.

9/26/20 – Mean R is .96 with a return to smpky air as the wildfires rage. Evacuations due to wildfire are what is on folks’ minds. Infections per day are under 13.2, a decrease in the average since the pause started. Doubling rate is 29.6 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 541%; they won’t go up till after the Sunday report.

9/26/20 – Mean R is .89 with air pollution gone, a welcome drop. Infections per day are under 13.4, a decrease in the average since the pause started. Doubling rate is 29.2 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 289%; they won’t go up till after the Sunday report.

9/25/20 – Mean R is 1.07 with air pollution gone, rising again with good air. Infections per day are under 13.4, a decrease in the average since the pause started. Doubling rate is 29 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 298%; they won’t go up till after the Sunday report.

9/24/20 – Mean R is 1.12 with air pollution gone, rising again with good air. Infections per day are under 13.5, a decrease in the average since the pause started. Doubling rate is 28.8 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 304%; they won’t go up till after the Sunday report.

9/23/20 – Mean R is 1.06 with air pollution gone. That is trending down toward 1 again. Infections per day are under 13.5, a decrease in the average since the pause started. Doubling rate is 28.7 days, longer, which is good. Recoveries to infections are 316%; they won’t go up till after the Sunday report.

9/21/20 – Mean R is 1.11 with air pollution gone. Today it is a little elevated. Infections per day are over 13.6, doubling rate is 28.3 days, and recoveries to infections are 334%; up dramatically because of reporting of over 400 recoveries on Sunday.

9/20/20 – Mean R is 1.14 with air pollution gone. Infections per day are over 13.7, doubling rate is 28 days, and recoveries to infections are 244%. Expect a report raising this in the next couple of days.

9/19/20 – Mean R is 1.24 since air pollution is gone now and people are out and about. Infections per day are over 13.7, doubling rate is 28 days, and recoveries to infections are 245%. Expect a report raising this in the next couple of days.

9/17/20 – Mean R is 0.98 since air pollution is gone now and people are out and about; R figures lag several days. Infections per day are over 13.7, doubling rate is 27.9 days, and recoveries to infections are 260%.

9/16/20 – Mean R is 0.87; air pollution is gone today, but R figures lag several days. Infections per day are over 13.8, doubling rate is 27.7 days, and recoveries to infections are 266%.

9/14/20 – Mean R is 0.71; still lots of air pollution, conditions that keep people indoors. Infections per day are over 13.9, doubling rate is 27.3 days, and recoveries to infections are 285%, with many recoveries reported Sunday.

9/11/20 – Mean R is 0.62; still lots of air pollution, conditions that keep people indoors. Infections per day are over 13.9, doubling rate is 26.9 days, and recoveries to infections are 206%.

9/07/20 – Mean R is 0.87; still lots of air pollution, and very very hot conditions. Infections per day are over 13.8, doubling rate is 26.7 days, and recoveries to infections are 213%.

9/07/20 – Mean R is 1.03; still lots of air pollution, and very very hot conditions. Infections per day are over 13.8, doubling rate is 26.5 days, and recoveries to infections are 226%; a bunch of cases were changed to recovered status over the weekend.

9/04/20 – Mean R is 1.13; I guess the fire holiday is over. Infections per day are over 15, doubling rate is 26.2 days, and recoveries to infections are 156%. No smoke, more movement, more virus transmission. It’s that simple.

9/03/20 – Mean R is back above 1 as smoke clears. Infections per day are 13.4 and the doubling rate is 26.2 days. Recovered to infected is 161%. No smoke encourages more movements.

9/02/20 – Mean R is staying low at .89. Infections per day are 13.4 and the doubling rate is 26.1 days. Recovered to infected is 172%. There was some air pollution yesterday; today is supposed to be better. Will that cause a resurgence of the virus?

8/28/20 – Mean R is staying low at .81. Infections per day are 12.8 and the doubling rate is 25.8 days. Recovered to infected is 129%. We are getting through the surge. How much is due to the fire threat and air pollution the last few days?

8/23/20 – Mean R has dropped to .94. Infections per day are 25.7 and the doubling rate is 24.8 days. Recovered to infected is 106%. Pretty good numbers for a start.

8/22/20 – The Mean R stands at 1.03; let’s hope it does not surge again this weekend. The fires may help with that. The doubling rate is 24.8 days, and new infections are averaging 25.4. Recoveries to Infections ratio is 114%; reporting expected over this weekend.

8/19/20 – The Mean R stands at 1.25, with a lot of cases reported yesterday. Perhaps a weekend surge finally showing up. The doubling rate is 24.5 days, and new infections are averaging 24.6. Recoveries to Infections ratio is 130%.

8/18/20 – The Mean R stands at 1.09, still over 1. The doubling rate is 24.4 days, and new infections are averaging 24.5. Recoveries to Infections ratio is 143%, due to a large number of recoveries reported in a batch.

8/14/20 – The Mean R stands at 1.27, really not good. Is this the result of weekend group events? The doubling rate is 24 days, and new infections are averaging 23.6. Recoveries to Infections ratio is 98%. If the incubation or spreading interval is 4 to 5 days, as is suspected, weekend events would account for the large increase this week late.

8/13/20 – The Mean R stands at 1.2, not good. The doubling rate is almost 24, and new infections are averaging 23.2. Recoveries to Infections ratio is 109%. Weekends have been a setback for our progress against the virus.

8/12/20 – The Mean R stands at 1.15, not good. The doubling rate is almost 23.9, and new infections are averaging 23. Recoveries to Infections ratio is 111%. Weekends are a setback for our progress against the virus.

8/11/20 – Over the weekend the Mean R increased to 1.2; a lot less isolation and distancing. The doubling rate is almost 23.8, and new infections are averaging 22.8. Recoveries to Infections ratio is 116%. Weekends are a setback for our progress against the virus.

8/10/20 – Over the weekend the Mean R increased to 1.01; some less isolation and distancing. the doubling rate is almost 23.7, and new infections are averaging 22.6. Recoveries were reported in a large group last weekend and Recoveries to Infections ratio is 124%.

8/09/20 – The Mean R is .99, still below 1; good for the latest isolation rules. The doubling rate is 23.5 days, steady for several days. New infections per day are averaging 22.5. Recoveries as a percent of infections decline;recoveries are only reported on the weekend.

8/07/20 – I am going to start writing only every other day or so. Look then for a consolidated table giving the history below. The Mean R is .98, still below 1; good for the latest isolation rules. The doubling rate is 23.6 days, steady for several days. And the new infections per day are averaging 21.6. Recoveries as a percent of infections decline, as would be expected when recoveries are only reported on the weekend.

8/06/20 – Mean Reproduction rate R is .86. People must be mixing less. There are about 21 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 23.6 days Recoveries are 105% of Infections. Wonder what will happen when school starts?

8/05/20 – Mean Reproduction rate R is 1.07. We are consistently above 1 and the virus will continue to spread. There are about 21 new cases per day, up all week, and the doubling rate is around 23.5 days Recoveries are 105% of Infections. We are still in trouble.

8/03/20 – Mean Reproduction rate R is 1.13. We are consistently above 1 and the virus will continue to spread. There are about 20.6 new cases per day, up all week, and the doubling rate is around 23.3 days Recoveries are 111% of Infections, because the recovery data was just reported.

8/02/20 – Mean Reproduction rate R is 1.17. We are consistently above 1 and the virus will continue to spread. There are about 20.3 new cases per day, up all week, and the doubling rate is around 23.2 days Recoveries are 91% of Infections, probably improving when the recovery data is reported. We cannot expect the virus to moderate unless we change our isolation and distancing practices, but especially isolation (staying home!!).

8/01/20 – Mean Reproduction rate R is 1.16. There are about 19.9 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 23.3 days Recoveries are 98% of Infections. The mobility graph does not update daily. We cannot expect the virus to moderate unless we change our isolation and distancing practices toward the area in yellow.

7/31/20 – Mean Reproduction rate R drops to 1.1. There are about 19.5 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 23.3 days Recoveries are 105% of Infections. The mobility graph does not update daily. We cannot expect the virus to moderate unless we change our isolation and distancing practices toward the area in yellow.

7/30/20 – Mean Reproduction rate R remains 1.16. There are about 19 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 23.3 days Recoveries are 112% of Infections. The mobility graph does not update every day. We cannot expect the virus to moderate unless we change our isolation and distancing practices toward the area in yellow.

7/29/20 – Mean Reproduction rate R is at 1.16. There are about 19 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 23 days Recoveries are 120% of Infections due to the weekend reporting of many recoveries. The mobility graph shows we are clearly in the green cluster and not moving toward the virus-safe yellow cluster. we cannot expect the virus to moderate unless we start to migrate down toward those levels of isolation and distancing.

7/28/20 – Mean Reproduction rate R is at 1.24. Not enough social isolation. There are about 19 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 23 days Recoveries are 124% of Infections due to the weekend reporting of many recoveries.

7/27/20 – Mean Reproduction rate R is at 1.35. Not enough social isolation. There are about 19 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 22.8 days Recoveries are 130% of Infections due to the weekend reporting of many recoveries.

7/26/20 – Mean Reproduction rate R way up again at 1.43. This is a really large jump in the last couple of days. Our social isolation is clearly not strong enough to stop the virus spread. There are about 19 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 22.7 days Recoveries are 94% of Infections; more likely will be reported tomorrow on Monday.

7/25/20 – Mean Reproduction rate R way up today at 1.26. To reduce social isolation we need 14 days or R below 1. There are about 18.6 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 22.6 days Recoveries are 101% of Infections; more likely will be reported tomorrow or Monday.

7/24/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R way up today at 1.13 with a large number of infections reported. To reduce social isolation we need 14 days or R below 1. There are about 18.3 new cases per day. The doubling rate is around 22.7 days Recoveries are 107% of Infections; more likely will be reported this weekend.

7/23/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R continues below 1 at 0.89. People are still isolating more. There are about 18 new cases per day, slowing down. The doubling rate is around 22.6 days Recoveries are 117% of Infections.

7/22/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R continues to drop at 0.79. People are taking social isolation seriously. There are about 18 new cases per day, slowing down. The doubling rate is around 22.2 days, an improvement. Recoveries are 124% of Infections, declining through the week because recoveries are only reported weekends.

7/21/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R is .85, continuing trend below 1. People are taking social isolation seriously. There are 18.0 new cases per day, slowing down. The doubling rate is around 22.5 days, an improvement. Recoveries are 128% of Infections.

7/20/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R is .9, showing that people are taking social isolation seriously. There are 18.1 new cases per day, slowing down. The doubling rate is around 22 days, an improvement. Recoveries are 134% of Infections, as a large number of recoveries was reported this weekend.

7/19/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R is .93, showing that people are taking social isolation seriously. There are 18.3 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 21.6 days. Recoveries are 87% of Infections.

7/18/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R is .98. Today is the first day of changed reporting for Infections per day and Doubling rate. They are now based on the time fro pause of social isolation in June to present. There are almost 18 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 21.8 days. Recoveries are 91% of Infections; more should be reported over this weekend.

7/17/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R is 1.23; not good. There are over 10 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 25.7 days. Recoveries are 95% of Infections; they are reported in bulk on weekends.

7/16/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R is 1.26; not good. There are over 10 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 25.9 days. Recoveries are 99% of Infections; they are only reported on weekends.

7/15/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R is 1.25; not good and going up. We are now close to the mean since the start of the disease, a loss of ground from our previous levels. There are 9.94 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 26 days. Recoveries are 103% of Infections. We are building up, and need to be more careful.

7/14/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R is 1.12; not good. There are 9.68 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is 26 days. Recoveries are 109% of Infections.

7/13/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R is 0.99; good. There are 9.45 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 26 days. Recoveries are 118% of Infections. Many recoveries were posted Sunday.

7/12/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate R is 0.97; good. There are 9.28 new cases per day, and the doubling rate is around 26 days. Recoveries are 85% of Infections, but more recoveries will probably be reported after this weekend if history is our guide.

7/11/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate is 0.9, good news for residents. There has been an average of almost 9 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is around 26.5 days. Recoveries are 90% of Infections; they are only reported on weekends.

7/10/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate is 0.94 good news for residents. There has been an average of almost 8.7 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is around 26.7 days. Recoveries are 100% of Infections; they are only reported on weekends.

7/09/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate is 1.06; average of almost 8.5 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is around 26.8 days. Recoveries are 106% of Infections; they are only reported on weekends.

7/08/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate is 1.05; average of 8.3 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is around 26.9 days. Recoveries are 110% of Infections; none reported yesterday.

7/07/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate is 1.25; average of 8.15 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is around 26.9 days. Recoveries are 114% of Infections; recoveries in a block were reported yesterday.

7/06/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate is 1.35; average of 7.78 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is around 27.2 days; at this rate, infections will rise from the current 637 to around 1270 in about 4 weeks. Recoveries are 85% of Infections.

7/04/2020 – Mean Reproduction rate rises sharply to over 1.4; average of 7.57 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is around 27.1 days. Recoveries are 85% of Infections. Recoveries are only reported once a week, so we can anticipate an increase in recoveries soon. The rapid spread is consistent with a mutation of the virus that spreads more efficiently, as reported by Dr Anthony Fauci and several scientific sources.

7/03/2020 – Today, Mean Reproduction rate is 1.19; average of 7.24 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is around 27.6 days; at this rate, infections will rise from the current 637 to around 1270 in abut 4 weeks. Recoveries are 97% of Infections, continuing to show the increasing trend of infections, but recoveries are only reported over the weekend, accounting for the jags in the green area’s bottom. This growth is consistent with a mutation of the virus that spreads more efficiently, as reported by Dr Anthony Fauci and several scientific sources.

7/02/2020 – Today, Mean Reproduction rate is 1.18; average of 7 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is around 27.7 days. Recoveries are 103% of Infections. Not much sign of slowing.

7/01/2020 – Today, Mean Reproduction rate is 1.14; average of 6.85 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is around 27.85 days. Recoveries are 111% of Infections. Not much sign of slowing.

6/30/2020 – Today, Mean Reproduction rate is 1.09; average of 6.72 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is around 27.9 days. Recoveries are 122% of Infections.

6/29/2020 – Sonoma County reported a large number of recoveries yesterday. Today, Mean Reproduction rate is 1.41, dramatically increasing, with average of 6.66 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is 27.7 days. Recoveries are 126% of Infections, perhaps more typical.

6/28/2020 – Sonoma County reported no data on 6/27. Today, Mean Reproduction rate is 1.49, dramatically increasing. There is an average of 6.6 new cases per day since the start of testing, also up significantly. The doubling rate is almost 27.6 days, shortening. That is bad. Recoveries are only 90% of Infections. No recoveries were reported this weekend, a break from past practice. Perhaps workers are getting worn out fighting the virus and can’t find time to keep score.

6/26/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate is 1.36, increasing a lot (not good). There is an average of 6.2 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is almost 28 days. Recoveries are 106% of Infections. This will increase over the weekend.

6/25/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate is 1.13, showing great volatility due to reporting on different days, and increasing (not good). There is an average of 6 new cases per day since the start of testing, and the rate is increasing. The doubling rate is almost 28 days. Recoveries are 113% of Infections; the decline here is due to the county only reporting recoveries once a week in bulk.

6/24/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate is 1.45, showing great volatility due to reporting on different days, and increasing (not good). There is an average of 6 new cases per day since the start of testing, and the rate is increasing. The doubling rate is almost 28 days. Recoveries are 118% of Infections,

6/23/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate is 1.29, showing great volatility due to reporting on different days. 50 cases were reported on Monday. There is an average of 5.95 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate is almost 25 days. Recoveries are 124% of Infections,

6/22/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate dropped to 0.91, continuing to reflect better social distancing since the Governor’s order to resume wearing masks. There is an average of 5.9 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate remains around 24.8 days. Recoveries are 140% of Infections, since a large number of recoveries was recorded Sunday.

6/21/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate dropped to 0.95, perhaps reflecting increased concern about social distancing since the Governor’s order to resume wearing masks. There is an average of 6 new cases per day since the start of testing. The doubling rate remains around 24.7 days. Recoveries are 99% of Infections.

6/20/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate of 1.1 means that the virus cases keep exploding. People are not social distancing to prevent the disease spread. There is an average of 5.9 new cases per day since start of testing. The doubling rate remains around 24.6 days. Recoveries are 103% of Infections. A considerable number was reported yesterday.

6/19/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate of 1.2 means that the virus cases are exploding faster. This rate is increasing!! People are not social distancing to prevent the disease spread. There is an average of 5.9 new cases per day since start of testing. The doubling rate remains around 24.5 days. Recoveries are 107% of Infections; there have been no updates–we can expect Sonoma county to update recoveries on Sunday.

6/18/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate of 1.14 means that the virus cases are exploding faster. People are not social distancing to prevent the disease spread. There is an average of 5.8 new cases per day since start of testing. The doubling rate remains around 24.4 days. Recoveries are 112% of Infections, a drop as more cases are reported than recoveries.

6/17/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate of 1.09 means that the virus cases are exploding. People are not social distancing to prevent the disease spread. There is an average of 5.8 new cases per day since start of testing. The doubling rate remains around 24 days. Recoveries are 121% of Infections.

6/16/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate of 1.13 means that the virus cases are now exploding in number again. Social distancing relaxation has to be playing a big role. People are not behaving as well to prevent the disease spread. There is an average of 6 new cases per day since start of testing. The doubling rate remains around 24 days. Recoveries are 124% of Infections.

6/15/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate of 1.2 means that the virus cases are now exploding in number again. Social distancing relaxation has to be playing a big role. People are not behaving as well to prevent the disease spread. There is an average of 6 new cases per day since start of testing. The doubling rate remains around 24 days. Recoveries are 127% of Infections. This is because as usual on Sunday a lot of recoveries were recognized. This is a systematic problem with the way data are managed, so short term measurement of recoveries is not possible.

6/14/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate is now 1.19. Transmission of cases is definitely on the rise, almost certainly from the relaxation of social distancing. There is an average of 6.16 new cases per day since start of testing. The doubling rate remains around 23.8 days. Recoveries are 98% of Infections. The rate of increase is higher recently. It signals that we still do not have management of the virus, though the growth may be slow enough that our hospitals are not strained.

6/13/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate is now 1.05. There are 6.1 new cases per day. The doubling rate remains around 23.8 days. Recoveries are 106% of Infections. The picture is steady, but the rate of increase is high. This is almost certainly due to people relaxing social distancing.

6/12/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate is now 0.98. There are 6.1 new cases per day. The doubling rate remains around 23.7 days. Recoveries are 113% of Infections. The picture is steady.

6/11/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate rises to 1.06. Apparently quite a few cases are being uncovered by testing. There are 6.2 new cases per day. The doubling rate remains around 23.5 days. Recoveries are 117% of Infections. Relaxing of social distancing may be having an impact.

6/10/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate drops to 1.0. Below 1 means the virus is not expanding. There are 6.33 new cases per day. The doubling rate remains around 23.3 days. Recoveries are 125% of Infections. Relaxing of social distancing has not had an impact yet.

6/9/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate holds at 1.21. Below 1 would mean the virus is not expanding. There are 6.55 new cases per day. The doubling rate remains around 23 days. Recoveries are 128% of Infections; none reported yesterday.

6/8/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate has come down to 1.21. Below 1 would mean the virus is not expanding. There are under 7 new cases per day. The doubling rate remains around 23 days. Recoveries are 133% of Infections, as a bunch of recoveries were reported yesterday.

6/7/2020 – Sonoma County Mean Reproduction rate has continued to rise, to 1.53. Below 1 would mean the virus is not expanding. There are about 7 new cases per day. The doubling rate remains around 22.8 days. Our fraction recovered is 91% of infections. This may stem from delays in reporting recoveries.

6/3/2020 – Sonoma County has a Mean Reproduction Rate of 0.69, well below 1; this means the virus is no longer exploding here. Undoubtedly this is due to social distancing practices. With increasing testing recently, the rate of new infections is just under 8 per day